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The year of investing dangerously

The year of investing dangerously

JASON TEH | 2018 was the year of living dangerously as far as the stock market was concerned. The year began with a bang, cheered on by the global growth squad. However, unbridled risk taking eventually led to negative returns later in the year. Most equity indices around the globe delivered negative returns for 2018 […]

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11, January 2019
Australian equities | Australian shares
One of the most dangerous things an investor can do

One of the most dangerous things an investor can do

JASON TEH | The market corrections in February and October should be a warning to investors that the stock market is highly cyclical. It was inevitable that ‘growth’ stocks, which pushed the market to new highs for many months eventually led the collapse. Investors who paid heed to Howard Marks’ famous quote on cycles would […]

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26, November 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
Witching hour for Cinderella stocks

Witching hour for Cinderella stocks

JASON TEH | We all know the story of Cinderella. Transformed into a glamorous princess, she was the belle at the ball. However, the celebration abruptly stopped at midnight, when her gown turned back into rags and her coach turned into a rotten pumpkin. Growth stocks are sometimes like Cinderella, glamourous companies that can have […]

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01, November 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
The phantom resource bear market of 2018

The phantom resource bear market of 2018

JASON TEH | What a difference a year makes. This time last year, the stock market was cheering the global synchronised growth story. Now, it is downbeat, fixated on tariff wars that could derail global growth, especially China. In our view, the tariff war is a side show to what is happening in China. The […]

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10, October 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
Three Aussie stocks that pass the Buffett process

Three Aussie stocks that pass the Buffett process

LIVEWIRE | JASON TEH While the Australian share market contains numerous companies that pass the first three filters, finding a stock with a sensible price tag has become increasingly challenging. However, Amcor passes all four of Buffet’s filters: Understandable business Amcor is relatively straightforward business, supplying packaging and containers globally for defensive end markets such […]

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28, September 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
Danger flags are waving

Danger flags are waving

JASON TEH | There are moments in life where unnecessary risk is taken despite the warnings signs. For example, swimming outside the flags at the beach when the surf looks exciting. The flags are there for a reason, it protects you from turbulent currents that could suck you out to sea. For the stock market, […]

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31, July 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
The next bluechips to cut their dividends

The next bluechips to cut their dividends

JASON TEH | “You can hold a rock concert, and that’s okay. And you can hold a ballet, and that’s okay. Just don’t hold a rock concert and advertise it as ballet.” Warren Buffet. Yield traps are akin to a retiree couple thinking they’re attending ‘Swan Lake’ only to see Venom perform ‘Welcome to Hell’ […]

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27, June 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
The bubble in quality

The bubble in quality

JASON TEH | It is hard to spot a market bubble in the making. As they inflate, market participants often rationalise their investment decisions as to why they are paying higher prices. It’s only after they burst that that bubbles become clear. The most recent bubble bursting has been Bitcoin. Now we would contend that […]

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27, April 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
The real danger lurking in the shadows

The real danger lurking in the shadows

JASON TEH | While many investors fret about bonds or bond-like proxies from rising interest rates, the real danger lurking in the shadows is the prospect of rising risk premiums. Interest rates globally have already normalised and maybe there is a little more to go. And today bond-like stocks already have wide risk premiums. But […]

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16, April 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
Defensives: perception v reality

Defensives: perception v reality

JASON TEH | Are Australian bond-like proxies going to suffer a bondcano moment? Certainly, stocks that have defensive characteristics have been sold down in recent months. And bond bears would have it that they are collateral damage from rising US yields. However, we believe this is a false narrative. Hence, we need to go back […]

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11, April 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares