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The phantom resource bear market of 2018

The phantom resource bear market of 2018

JASON TEH | What a difference a year makes. This time last year, the stock market was cheering the global synchronised growth story. Now, it is downbeat, fixated on tariff wars that could derail global growth, especially China. In our view, the tariff war is a side show to what is happening in China. The […]

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10, October 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
Three Aussie stocks that pass the Buffett process

Three Aussie stocks that pass the Buffett process

LIVEWIRE | JASON TEH While the Australian share market contains numerous companies that pass the first three filters, finding a stock with a sensible price tag has become increasingly challenging. However, Amcor passes all four of Buffet’s filters: Understandable business Amcor is relatively straightforward business, supplying packaging and containers globally for defensive end markets such […]

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28, September 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
The yield trap of 2018

The yield trap of 2018

LIVEWIRE | DANIEL MUELLER In each of the previous 5 years, there have been several obvious candidates from which to ‘award’ the yield trap of the year. 2018 was harder. One could easily pick on AMP. But a combination of a lofty starting share price and lack of asset sales, due to management overhaul and […]

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26, September 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
Danger flags are waving

Danger flags are waving

JASON TEH | There are moments in life where unnecessary risk is taken despite the warnings signs. For example, swimming outside the flags at the beach when the surf looks exciting. The flags are there for a reason, it protects you from turbulent currents that could suck you out to sea. For the stock market, […]

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31, July 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
The next bluechips to cut their dividends

The next bluechips to cut their dividends

JASON TEH | “You can hold a rock concert, and that’s okay. And you can hold a ballet, and that’s okay. Just don’t hold a rock concert and advertise it as ballet.” Warren Buffet. Yield traps are akin to a retiree couple thinking they’re attending ‘Swan Lake’ only to see Venom perform ‘Welcome to Hell’ […]

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27, June 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
Caltex: Shrink to grow

Caltex: Shrink to grow

SAM DYSON | Investors love companies that can deploy capital at high returns over a long period of time. However, great shareholder returns can also be achieved from companies that shrink their capital base. Take Caltex for example. It operates in an industry perceived to be dying. Vehicles are ever more fuel-efficient, and cheap battery […]

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08, June 2018
Australian equities
The bubble in quality

The bubble in quality

JASON TEH | It is hard to spot a market bubble in the making. As they inflate, market participants often rationalise their investment decisions as to why they are paying higher prices. It’s only after they burst that that bubbles become clear. The most recent bubble bursting has been Bitcoin. Now we would contend that […]

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27, April 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
The real danger lurking in the shadows

The real danger lurking in the shadows

JASON TEH | While many investors fret about bonds or bond-like proxies from rising interest rates, the real danger lurking in the shadows is the prospect of rising risk premiums. Interest rates globally have already normalised and maybe there is a little more to go. And today bond-like stocks already have wide risk premiums. But […]

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16, April 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
Defensives: perception v reality

Defensives: perception v reality

JASON TEH | Are Australian bond-like proxies going to suffer a bondcano moment? Certainly, stocks that have defensive characteristics have been sold down in recent months. And bond bears would have it that they are collateral damage from rising US yields. However, we believe this is a false narrative. Hence, we need to go back […]

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11, April 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares
Run for the hills... interest rates are exploding

Run for the hills... interest rates are exploding

JASON TEH | …Or that is what some equity pundits masquerading as bond experts want you to believe. They predict that a ‘bondcano’ of rising interest rates will lead to collapsing prices for bonds and bond-like proxies. Over the last few months, this hype about rising global interest rates reached fever pitch due to: US […]

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06, April 2018
Australian equities | Australian shares